Economic Indicators

Use market insights from the commercial credit industry to better understand economic performance

Highlights

  • Highly correlated GDP indicators
  • Independently validated
  • Leverages PayNet database

Intended for

  • Economist
  • Investment Manager
  • Research Analyst

Description

Small businesses generally respond to changes in economic conditions more rapidly than larger businesses do. Thomson Reuters/PayNet Indices taps small business lending and delinquency data from PayNet Inc., the leading provider of risk management tools and market insight to the US commercial credit industry.

The Thomson Reuters/PayNet Small Business Lending Index (SBLI) measures the volume of new commercial loans and leases to small businesses.

The Thomson Reuters/PayNet Small Business Delinquency Index (SBDI) is a complementary offering which is designed to gauge small business financial stress and default risk, providing early warning signals of future insolvency across multiple sectors of the economy.

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Features

Benefits

All data is collected by PayNet, Inc, which collects real-time loan information from more than 200 leading US lenders, producing the largest and richest collection of commercial loans and leases to small businesses

Thomson Reuters/PayNet indices shed light on the health of the important and often opaque small business sector of the economy

Small Business Lending Index (SBLI):

Measures the net volume of loans to small businesses. It is a highly correlated indicator of US GDP by 2 to 5 months, providing a more in-depth understanding of where the economy stands in the business cycle
  • Enables better economic forecasts by measuring capital investment in the small business economy as a forecast for GDP
  • Signals the future direction of the U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI) to understand where the business cycle stands and spotting its next inflection point

Small Business Delinquency Index (SBDI):

Measures small business financial stress and default risk, providing early warnings of future insolvency
  • Serves as a leading indicator of changes in unemployment rates on both the national level and for some US states
  • Provides insight to financial services executives, economists, policy makers and regulators in order to understand the stage of the business cycle and to set credit oversight policies

White Paper

Looking into the future with the Thomson Reuters /PayNet Small Business Lending Index (SBLI)

This paper describes the Thomson Reuters/PayNet SBLI index's ability to signal the future direction of the U.S examine its ability to signal the future direction of the U.S Leading Economic Indicators Index.

White Paper

Examining the Thomson Small Business Delinquency Index(SBDI) as a leading indicator of Financial Stress and Macroeconomic Trends

PayNet has a rich data set that has been statistically proven to be a reliable indicator of future U.S. economic trends. In particular, Clark and Ware (2010)1 used a multi-step approach to validate the Thomson Reuters/PayNet Small Business Lending Index (“SBLI”) as a leading indicator of the U.S. economy.

Thomson Reuters/PayNet Small Business Lending Index

Based on new loan originations by major lenders in PayNet’s proprietary database, this new index measures the volume of loans to Small Businesses (normalized to January 2005).

Seasonally adjusted and presented both on an absolute index basis and on a change versus the same month one year prior basis, it is published monthly as follows:

  • Preliminary data for current value reflecting most recent small business lending activity released
  • Revised data for month preceding Preliminary released
  • Final data for month preceding Revised released

The index has its highest correlation with GDP change as a leading indicator, leading between 2 and 5 months in advance. The index undergoes periodic checks to examine the accuracy of the estimates over time.

Learn more about insight and data available from PayNet

Thomson Reuters/PayNet Small Business Delinquency Index

The Thomson Reuters PayNet Small Business Delinquency Index captures the percentage of loans to small businesses that are 31-90 days past due or 91-180 days past due, calculated on a monthly basis. The index is calculated from the most recent loan performance for the largest commercial and industrial lenders in PayNet's US database, including both loans and leases for which data is available. As lenders in the index change, they are seamlessly replaced with comparable lenders to preserve the integrity of the index.

SBDI is published monthly as follows:

  • PRELIMINARY data for current month reflecting most recent small business delinquency
  • REVISED data for month preceding Preliminary
  • FINAL data for month preceding Revised

Learn More About Insight and Data Available from PayNet

Thomson Reuters/PayNet SBLI

Thomson Reuters/PayNet SBDI

Thomson Reuters Eikon RIC: .TRPSBLI

Thomson Reuters Eikon RIC: . TRSBDI

  • Lucas Garland

    Head of Product Management, Indices

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