Our predictions for the next class of Nobel Laureates

Using scientific citation data to identify the 2013 Nobel Prize winners
Bulgarian archaeologist Daniela Agre shows golden wreath of laurels found at a Thracian king's tomb near the village of Zlatinitsa, some 330 km south-east from the capital Sofia, July 24, 2005
REUTERS/Stoyan Nenov

With still a few weeks to go before the names of the 2013 Nobel Prize winners are announced, we are placing our bets on who will be among this distinguished class of recipients with the announcement of the Thomson Reuters Citation Laureates.

For more than a decade we have used proprietary data from our research and citation database, Web of Science™, to identify researchers of Nobel class in the categories of chemistry, physics, physiology or medicine, and economics. Based on a thorough review of citations to each person’s research, we select a limited number of high-impact researchers as Thomson Reuters Citation Laureates and predict they will be Nobel Prize winners, either this year or in the near future. With 27 accurate predictions in the past 12 years, our list is worth a second look.

This year, noteworthy nominees on our list include:

  • François Englert and Peter W. Higgs for their prediction of the Brout-Englert-Higgs boson particle in the field of physics
  • Sam Peltzman and Richard A. Posner for their work extending economic theories of regulation in the field of economics
  • Adrian P. Bird, Howard Cedar and Aharon Razin for their fundamental discoveries concerning DNA methylation and gene expression in the field of medicine
  • M.G. Finn, Valery V. Fokin and K. Barry Sharpless for their development of modular click chemistry in the field of chemistry. If selected, this would be Sharpless’s second Nobel Prize (he won in 2001 for his work on chirally catalyzed oxidation reactions).
"Scientific research citations function as a repayment of an intellectual debt," said Gordon Macomber, managing director, Thomson Reuters Scholarly & Scientific Research. "By analyzing these citations in aggregate over many years, we are able to identify individual researchers and institutions that have the greatest impact on their fields of study and, as a result, are most likely to capture the attention of the Nobel jury."
For more information about this year’s Citation Laureate selections and their fields of research, and to view our previously named Citation Laureates visit Thomson Reuters ScienceWatch , an open-Web resource for science metrics and research performance analysis.